在周一下午发布的2015年《经济蓝皮书》中,社科院还预计,2015年固定资产投资将达到59.5万亿元,名义增长14.7%,实际增长14.3%,增速将进一步降低。社会消费品零售总额名义增长率和实际增长率分别为11.4%和10.4%,仍然保持较为稳定的增长。 此外,综合考虑到国内外需求因素以及大宗商品价格因素,社科院预计2015年出口和进口分别增长6.9%和4.6%,外贸顺差会进一步比今年有所扩大。 中国经济第三季度同比增长7.3%,增速创五年来的最低水平。一些经济学家暗示,今年全年经济增速可能难以达到政府设定的约7.5%的目标。 中国最高决策层上周刚刚召开了中央经济工作会议,规划明年的首要经济任务。此次会议并未宣布任何具体的经济目标,但分析人士普遍预计他们将把增长目标下调至约7%,以便让决策者专注于调整经济结构,使消费发挥更大的作用,减少对政府投资的依赖。 社科院建议,在稳健的货币政策方面,要适度宽松,2014年实施了许多定向宽松的政策,2015年还要进一步坚持。加强和完善逆周期调节和风险管理框架,加强预调和回调。继续实施定向宽松的信贷政策,促进货币信贷和社会融资规模合理增长。 社科院表示,如果2015年美元继续走强,国外资本流出中国,外汇占款的基础货币投放可能还会进一步减少,就需要通过定向降准或全面降准、再贷款、抵押补充贷款,上述方式将成基础货币投放的重要渠道。 社科院还建议根据外汇占款增幅减少的情况,综合使用短期流动性调节工具,常备借贷便利等工具,并适时降低存款准备金率,保持市场适度的流动性水平。 社科院指出,2014年央行著力构建短期利率走廊,加上中期政策利率的间接利率调控机制,以适应基础货币渠道变化的挑战,这些工具还可进一步深化,因为现在短期利率有所降低,中期政策利率也有所走低,不过实体经济融资成本还是比较高的,需要通过综合配套的改革来解决。 社科院称,在必要的时候,2015年也可以通过降息来降低信贷资金的成本,提升市场的信心。 财政政策方面,社科院建议要适度增加国债和省政府的发债规模,适度扩大财政赤字规模,加快推进生活性服务业、建诛业、房地产业营改增,使得营改增扩大到主要的服务业。 在上周召开的中央经济工作会议後,中国政府承诺明年将努力保持经济稳定增长,并表示将继续实施稳健的货币政策和积极的财政政策。 日币对人民币汇率 – 新台币对人民币汇率

By Michael J. Casey and Alen Mattich WRAP: Services-sector purchasing managers’ indexes have arrived in the wake of the manufacturing PMIs released earlier in the week, and they really do present a mixed bag. The eurozone’s took a worrying turn…

[Dow Jones]–The deflationary effects of a falling oil price will force the ECB to broaden its asset purchase program to include corporate and soveriegn bonds, UBS says. The Swiss bank leaves behind a dwindling group of analysts who think the…

[Dow Jones]–The deflationary effects of a falling oil price will force the ECB to broaden its asset purchase program to include corporate and soveriegn bonds, UBS says. The Swiss bank leaves behind a dwindling group of analysts who think the…

By Jonathan Cheng And Rick Carew  SEOUL–A small toy maker offers a holiday lesson for South Korea Inc.’s ambitions to climb the manufacturing value chain. For most of its 35-year history, Young Toys Inc. manufactured and imported action figures like…

BAGHDAD–The Iraqi government agreed Tuesday to an oil export deal with the northern region of Kurdistan, signaling an end to a yearslong political impasse that has nearly bankrupted both governments and hobbled efforts to fight the Islamic State insurgency. The…

By Jack Hough   Apple owned the smartphone market this year while Samsung came up short. Expect a closer contest in 2015 and a better performance for Samsung shares. This year, Apple’s iPhone 6 stood apart from its predecessor with…

Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer on Tuesday said the timing of the first increase in interest rates remains dependent on broader economic data.  “If the labor market continues to strengthen, and if we see some signs of inflation beginning…

Investors have been better off buying high-grade corporate bonds compared to Treasurys so far in 2014. This year through Monday, US investment-grade corporate bonds have handed investors a total return–which includes price changes and interest payments–of 7.1%, compared to 4.79%…

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